The Extra-Area Effect in 71 Cloud Seeding Operations during Winters of 2008–14 over Jiangxi Province,East China     

Weijian WANG  Zhanyu YAO  Jianping GUO  Chao TAN  Shuo JIA  Wenhui ZHAO  Pei ZHANG  Liangshu GAO 《Journal of Meteorological Research》2019,(3):528-539

Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported, but little is specifically known about the downwind (extra-area) effects in China. We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter (November-February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter. The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67%(p=0.0013). This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area. Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014. A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units. Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding, which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect. The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.  相似文献   

线性化物理过程对GRAPES 4DVAR同化的影响   总被引：8，自引：3，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

刘永柱  龚建东  张林  陈起英 《气象学报》2019,77(2):196-209

线性化物理过程能够改善四维变分同化中极小化收敛的稳定性和增加极小化过程中对大气物理过程和动力更加精确的描述,它是四维变分同化中非常重要的一部分。通过在GRAPES全球模式中研究线性化物理过程,尤其是两个湿线性化物理过程,改善切线性模式预报精度,来提高GRAPES全球四维变分同化的分析和预报效果。线性化物理过程的开发首先需要简化原非线性化物理过程中的强非线性项,然后对线性化物理过程进行规约化,以抑制切线性扰动的异常增长。目前GRAEPS全球模式中的线性化物理过程主要包括次网格尺度地形参数化、垂直扩散、积云深对流和大尺度凝结。线性化物理过程预报精度的检验方法是通过选择合适大小的初始扰动（同化分析增量）,来比较非线性模式和切线性模式中的扰动演化的纬向平均误差。然后以绝热版本的切线性模式为基础,通过冬、夏两个个例试验来分别检验4个线性化物理过程的12 h预报效果。试验结果表明,通过添加次网格地形参数化和垂直扩散两个干线性化物理过程方案,可以有效抑制住绝热版本切线性模式低层扰动的异常增长,大幅度改善切线性模式预报效果。通过添加积云深对流和大尺度凝结两个湿线性化物理过程,可以在热带区域和中、高纬度地区提高切线性模式中湿变量和温度变量的近似精度,提高GRAPES全球四维变分同化的分析和预报效果。   相似文献   

The Relationship between Deterministic and Ensemble Mean Forecast Errors Revealed by Global and Local Attractor Radii     

Jie FENG  Jianping LI  Jing ZHANG  Deqiang LIU  Ruiqiang DING 《大气科学进展》2019,36(3):271-278

It has been demonstrated that ensemble mean forecasts, in the context of the sample mean, have higher forecasting skill than deterministic(or single) forecasts. However, few studies have focused on quantifying the relationship between their forecast errors, especially in individual prediction cases. Clarification of the characteristics of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts from the perspective of attractors of dynamical systems has also rarely been involved. In this paper, two attractor statistics—namely, the global and local attractor radii(GAR and LAR, respectively)—are applied to reveal the relationship between deterministic and ensemble mean forecast errors. The practical forecast experiments are implemented in a perfect model scenario with the Lorenz96 model as the numerical results for verification. The sample mean errors of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts can be expressed by GAR and LAR, respectively, and their ratio is found to approach2~(1/2) with lead time. Meanwhile, the LAR can provide the expected ratio of the ensemble mean and deterministic forecast errors in individual cases.  相似文献   

A Review of Atmospheric Electricity Research in China from 2011 to 2018     

Xiushu QIE  Yijun ZHANG 《大气科学进展》2019,36(9):994-1014

Atmospheric electricity research has been conducted actively in China, having profited from the development and application of high temporal and spatial resolution lightning detection and location technologies. This paper reviews the scientific advances made in the field of atmospheric electricity in China from 2011 to 2018, covering the following five aspects:(1)lightning detection and location techniques;(2) discharge processes and parameters associated with rocket-triggered lightning;(3) physical processes in natural lightning and attachment to the ground;(4) lightning activities and charge structure in different thunderstorms; and(5) effects of thunderstorms on the upper atmosphere. In addition, some outstanding questions for future research are outlined.  相似文献   

Interannual Salinity Variability in the Tropical Pacific in CMIP5 Simulations     

Hai ZHI  Rong-Hua ZHANG  Pengfei LIN  Peng YU 《大气科学进展》2019,36(4):378-396

Salinity variability and its causes in the tropical Pacific are analyzed using observations, reanalysis products and model simulations. The mixed-layer salinity(MLS) budget analyses from observations and reanalysis products indicate that its interannual evolution is closely related to ENSO and is predominantly governed by surface forcing and surface advection in the western-central equatorial Pacific. It is found that the observed MLS tendency leads Nin?o3.4 by about 12 months due to the effect of negative freshwater flux(evaporation minus precipitation). These observation-based analyses are used to evaluate the corresponding simulation using GFDL-ESM2 M. It is evident that the model can simulate the spatiotemporal variations of MLS with some discrepancies compared to observations. In the warm pool of the equatorial Pacific the MLS tendency in the model is sensitive to ocean dynamics, however model biases cause the tendency to be underestimated. In particular, the freshwater flux is overestimated while the ocean surface zonal current and vertical velocity at the base of the mixed layer are underestimated. Due to model biases in representing the related physics, the effects of surface forcing on the simulated MLS budget are overestimated and those of subsurface and surface advection are relatively weak. Due to weaker surface advection and subsurface forcing than observed, the simulated compensations for surface forcing are suppressed, and the simulated MLS tendency that leads Nin?o3.4 by 8–10 months, which is shorter than the observed lead time. These results are useful for the interpretation of observational analyses and other model simulations in the tropical Pacific.  相似文献   

基于ERA5的快速辐射传输模式与FY-4A成像仪观测结果的偏差分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

瞿建华  张烺  陆其峰  张迺强  王丁 《气象学报》2019,77(5):911-922

2016年12月发射升空的FY-4A是中国第二代静止轨道气象卫星,该星上搭载了可提供东半球近实时高分辨率卫星观测数据的扫描辐射成像仪——AGRI（Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager）。在其观测数据应用于大气参数反演或同化前,数据偏差的定量化分析是一个必要环节。采用快速辐射传输模式RTTOV（Radiative Transfer for the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder）,基于欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）第5个全球再分析数据产品（ERA5）对AGRI的7个红外通道（通道08—14）进行了模拟,并利用MODIS云检测产品对模拟结果进行了晴空筛选,以期得到一些对AGRI的定量应用有价值的偏差分析结果。观测-模拟（O-B）的偏差分析结果显示:海洋和陆地上,通道10（7.1 μm）存在明显大于其他红外通道的系统性偏差,这很可能来源于ERA5在对流层中层对水汽的高估。通道08为近红外短波通道,地表反射作用影响强烈,陆地上存在较大的平均偏差,而海洋上平均偏差小于0.4 K。通道14在ERA5近地层气温偏高及定标偏差的影响下,海洋存在接近1 K的平均偏差;陆地上存在2 K左右的平均偏差。其余各红外通道在海洋和陆地上的平均偏差分别在0.6和1.3 K以下。偏差影响因子分析结果显示:地表海拔高度、观测天顶角对偏差也存在一定程度的影响;海洋上偏差分布存在季节变化可能来源于再分析资料中海表温度估算的季节性误差。   相似文献   

人工智能在冰雹识别及临近预报中的初步应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

张文海  李磊 《气象学报》2019,77(2):282-291

基于广东10部S波段多普勒天气雷达的三维拼图资料,利用机器学习技术开发了一种冰雹识别和临近预报的人工智能算法。算法设计时以雷达回波反射率的垂直和水平扫描数据为基础训练集,将冰雹云的雷达反射率扫描数据作为正样本,将其他雷达反射率扫描数据作为负样本,通过贝叶斯分类法对正、负样本数据集进行机器学习,训练人工智能识别冰雹云内在规律的能力。训练时以广东省2008-2013和2015-2016年的数据作为训练集,使用了2014年广东省12次冰雹过程的数据做检验。对比检验的结果表明,人工智能法比传统的概念模型法击中率高9个百分点。研究结果表明了人工智能对冰雹这类非线性强天气过程具有较强的识别能力。   相似文献   

一次“晴天霹雳”致死事件分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

殷启元  范祥鹏  张义军  张阳  郑栋  陈绍东 《气象学报》2019,77(2):292-302

对2017年广州从化地区一次"晴朗"天气下的闪电致死事件进行调查分析发现,这次事件是闪电首先击中一棵大树,然后击中附近人员头顶致死。根据目击者描述的时间和位置,利用闪电低频电场变化探测阵列的定位数据和广东电力等系统的雷电定位数据,结合广州番禺雷达观测资料,确定此事件是由一次含有7次回击的地闪过程的首次回击造成,其电流峰值强度为-30.9 kA。闪电起始于13.0 km高度的云内,经约600 ms云内发展过程后闪电通道从云体延伸出来,云砧区边缘（0 dBz）到回击点水平距离约300 m,降水区边缘（18 dBz）到回击点水平距离约1.8 km。使用雷击现场等效电路模型,计算旁络闪击空气击穿场强可击穿空气与人头部连接为通路,根据电路分流原理,如果雷电流击中13 m高的大树后流经到"跳点"（树干上方1/4）处后,则有13.2 kA雷电流直接闪击到受害者身上,同时还承受了78.3 kV跨步电压伤害,而距离雷击点10 m远的目击者仅承受1.3 kV跨步电压。   相似文献   

毫米波雷达云回波的自动分类技术研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

杨晓  黄兴友  杨军  李培仁  李盈盈  杨敏  刘燕斐  张帅  闫文辉 《气象学报》2019,77(3):541-551

毫米波雷达在云探测方面比厘米波天气雷达和激光雷达具有显著优势,可获得更多的云粒子信息,是研究云特性的主要遥感探测设备。为了开展对毫米波雷达探测的云回波进行自动分类的研究,利用161次云回波的个例数据,统计得到了卷云、高层云、高积云、层云、层积云和积云6类云型的特征量和其他参量的数值范围,利用分级的多参数阈值判别方法,达到了自动分类的目标,通过与人工分类的初步验证,两种分类结果的一致性达到84%,其中,层云和积云的识别一致较低的原因在于样本数据有限,仅有6次层云和8次积云的个例样本数据。通过更多样本的处理,提取的特征参量更可靠,自动分类的准确率会得到提高,以便将基于毫米波雷达的云分类技术应用于将来的云观测自动化业务。   相似文献   

我国华东与西南县域主要气象敏感性疾病变化特征及其医疗费用研究     

王嘉鑫  石彦军  卢山  冯鑫媛  王式功  张莹 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2019,13(6):133-140

摘要：针对目前医疗费用不断上涨的现实问题,基于安徽省阜南县和贵州省锦屏县相关医疗机构的全部住院数据和气象资料,首先分析两县疾病谱特征,然后从季节和24节气角度,分析两县主要气象敏感性疾病（因天气和气候异常变化而诱发或加重的相关疾病）住院人次和医疗费用的变化特征以及人体舒适度对当地主要气象敏感性疾病发病的影响。结果表明,阜南县和锦屏县人群中住院人数最多的疾病分别是循环和呼吸系统两大类气象敏感性疾病,医疗费用最高的前六位疾病都包含循环、呼吸和消化系统疾病,其三者医疗费用总和分别占两县总医疗费用的44.9%和45.8%,因此,从降低医疗费用的角度来看加强这三类主要气象敏感性疾病的预防十分重要。此外,三种系统疾病医疗费用呈现出明显的季节变化特征：其中,循环系统疾病的医疗费用在季节转换期间明显高于各季节内,呼吸系统疾病冬春季的医疗费用远高于夏秋季节,消化系统疾病夏季医疗费用最高。两县9月的体感温度最接近人体最佳舒适温度,而此时上述三类疾病的住院人次及医疗费用也是相对低点。此研究结果可为当地相关疾病的适时防控、有效降低医疗费用提供科学依据。  相似文献